Odds are a funny thing.
At least not yet.
Its currently moving away from Earth at 8.24 miles per second (13.26 kilometers per second).
2024 YR4 as seen by the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope.Image: ESO/O. Hainaut et al.
The probability of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth decreases with each subsequent pass.
The key thing is that its fading.
But potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) rarely end up colliding with Earth.
2024 YR4’s orbit relative to Earth and surrounding planets. Graphic: NASA/JPL
Material from space falls on Earth every day.
But its imperceptible because of its size.
2024 YR4 currently tops that running order of possible troublemakers by a significant margin.
A graphic showing the damage caused by asteroids of different sizes. Graphic: NASA
Those odds are nearly the same as 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032.
If you didnt follow all that, dont be disheartened.
Today, CNEOS Sentry updated that figure to 1-in-63.
Ejecta streaming from Dimorphos about a day after the DART impact. Image: NASA, ESA, STScI, J. Li (PSI)
Now, Apophis rating on the Torino scale is a 0.
This is the one large-scale natural disaster that we can actually prevent, Betts added.
We often get asked, Are you worried?
With a 99% chance that this asteroid will miss, no.
The community is not worried, but we must pay attention to it.
News from the future, delivered to your present.
As for the Moon, not so much.
