The odds of an asteroid crashing into Earth in 2032 keep changing, and not in a good way.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 1-in-45 chance of impacting our planet in seven years.

This figure is as of Monday morning, February 10, and has been fluctuating regularly.

An illustration of an asteroid.

An illustration of an asteroid.NASA/JPL-Caltech

Theasteroid was first spotted on December 27, 2024when it was 515,116 miles (829,000 kilometers) from Earth.

Normally, the odds decrease over time until its close to zero.

This figure has since fallen to practically zero, with Apophis posing no known threat to Earth.

Lucy Donaldjohanson

A similar thing has yet to happen with 2024 YR4.

The asteroid is currently moving away from us, and its next close approach will occur inDecember 2028.

News from the future, delivered to your present.

NASA’s Lucy spacecraft’s first views of the asteroid Donaldjohanson. The asteroid is outlined with a square in the right image to guide the eye.

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