Seismologists know a lot about the mechanics of earthquakes and why they occur.
Whats more difficult to determine, however, is how to predict future earthquakes.
Researchers in Japan discovered that computer models incorporating Earths surface temperatures simulated past earthquakes more accurately.
The San Andreas fault in California.© Ikluft, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
If validated, these results could revolutionize earthquake prediction and, as a consequence, our ability to prepare.
Here, we examine the hypothesis that one of such influences is through heat.
They found that incorporating surface temperatures into earthquake simulations improved their accuracy, especially for shallow earthquakes.
Illustration of the analyzed earthquake catalogs, with earthquakes represented as semi-transparent red dots and plate boundaries in black. © Chaos, AIP Publishing, OpenStreetMap, https://www.openstreetmap.org/
They also cited seasonal variations in earthquakes as further evidence.
The journal Chaos is published by AIP Publishing.
Researchers from Japans National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology also took part in the study.
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