You post it and sit back to watch the likes roll in, but they never come.
Meanwhile, other memes are taking off.
Theyrelaunching careersin comedy and becoming thenot-so-secret weaponof presidential campaigns.
Meme studies is a burgeoning field of research.© Tony Miller/Shutterstock
Billionaires areinvesting in meme farmsand someone calling themself Roaring Kitty hasbecome a millionaireon the back of meme stocks.
The short answer is: It is complicated.
The first question we should ask is: how do you define a meme?
Or a video clip?
First of all, lets talk visuals.
People scrolling through feeds are drawn in by the immediacy of a close-up.
Its like a visual shortcut to grabbing attention.
Then there is the subject.
Familiar faces, characters, or situations attract more views.
Its like the meme equivalent of a good punchline: everyone can laugh along because they get it.
Now, here is where things get a little tricky.
A memes relatability plays a big part in its viral potential.
The more relatable the meme, the broader its appeal, and the greater its chances of going viral.
Influencers also play a major role, often determining the life or death of virality.
As for predicting virality, its possible but still challenging.
With short videos, however, timing and influencer presence play an even bigger role in virality.
A successful meme has an element of surprise while being fully aligned with the current moment.
These might sound contradictory.
But the humor of popular memes often relies on the unexpected, on combining cultural elements that feel incongruous.
Yet, somehow, mixing these elements communicates their commentary or jokes in a very clear manner.
A key priority for meme creators is to ensure that their content is relevant to their target audience.
With a larger target audience, there is more potential for content to go viral.
However, it can be more challenging to determine what is interesting and relevant to a broader audience.
Can we predict memes going viral?
Meme creators and audiences can sometimes be unpredictable in their innovation and humor.
Notably, we must keep in mind that going viral is not always meme makers goal.
I spoke with many meme makers who did not want their content to go viral.
Their goal was to communicate with a very specific target audience.
Rather, it was about who is it that is liking and sharing their content.
Most simply, memes go viral when they resonate with a lot of people all at once.
A few factors help a meme burn brighter faster.
First is some kind of emotional valence.
Sentiment, sadness, and even lust, depending on the platform, can all drive clicks.
Timeliness also helps, connecting a meme to a moment people are already thinking about.
Content can sit in obscurity until someone with millions of followers shares it.
Spotlighting something on a morning talk show can push it to new people who are less chronically online.
Thought leaders and influencers, for better or worse, can light a fuse.
These factors might be a playbook, but theyre not a blueprint.
Even with everything we know, we cant easily predict what will take off.
I see more post hoc analysis from academics than clear foresight.
Audiences are fickle, and the zeitgeist is spry, so we cant call a winner beforehand.
Our current media environment makes predicting virality even harder than a decade ago.
Were increasingly distributed, and our content depends more heavily on algorithmic recommendations.
My students might tell me that everybody is talking about something on TikTok.
By then, Ill be looking at embers instead of a viral fountain of sparks.
But all of that would apply to a song.
News from the future, delivered to your present.
I Have Tasted the Face of Shrek, and Found It… Slimy?
